Stories I'll be following closely in 2026

We pride ourselves as a team on helping our clients make informed lending and property decisions, but to stay true to that promise, we must always be on the front foot with our questioning, our interpretation of change, and our best-practice advice.

Great advice stands the test of time, not just for a few years but for decades.

Over the next five years, in particular, our major cities are likely to experience significant structural shifts that will reshape how residential property performs as both an investment and a place to live.

1. Sydney Zoning

I am blown away by what is already in motion and what many suburbs are on the cusp of becoming. If this momentum continues, the next five years could meaningfully separate properties that underperform, those that survive, and those that thrive over the coming decades. What matters most is commencements.

2. Rate Expectations to Buyer vs Seller Behaviour

The truth is, everyone has been wrong on rates and inflation: some too bullish, some too bearish. The money market fluctuates constantly, and what feels like a sure path today can turn in a day. What actually matters is how behaviour adapts: do buyers return quickly when cuts are priced in, or do sellers list in fear? Not at a city level, but at the micro-region, what is actually happening on the ground?

3. Work-From-Home vs Return to Office

Its impact on property may be profound. The tide has clearly shifted back to a predominantly office-based culture, but consumer behaviour hasn’t thoroughly followed. People still prefer virtual engagement, but employers demand more in-office presence. The tension is clear.

4. Bank Innovation vs Government Intervention

APRA and the banks have already moved decisively on high-debt-to-income lending and lending through trusts. This tightening has been brewing for years, aimed squarely at moderating investor activity. In 2026, we may see these pressures extend to other lending types, such as SMSF loans; conversely, banks may relax credit policies to lend more again. The government may need to confront whether opening the barn door on uncapped 5% deposit home loans was a mistake.

5. Intergenerational Wealth

As baby boomers and their parents enter their later years, we are witnessing the most significant wealth transfers in history accelerate. The question is not if this will reshape the market, but how fast. The haves, not the have-nots, will increasingly dominate capital-city property over the next 20 years.

6. Migration Vs Rental Crisis

Historically high migration levels compound the severe shortage of rental accommodation. This pressure cooker is driving rising rents, homelessness and deepening shelter anxiety. This story will not and should not fade. With no realistic solution on the horizon, there is little political appetite to reduce migration materially.

What are yours?

Just got back from five nights in Queenstown - WOW!

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